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+--- Thread: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. (/showthread.php?tid=1373)
It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-18-2009
Let's establish context first. The argument is simple, and warrants a clean, clear explanation.
The question: What is the probability of Anub targetting the same person twice in a row.
Some things to understand -
A single person has a 4% chance to be targetted.
There is no preferential treatment for back to back selection - IE if someone gets selected once, it's still a 4% chance to be selected again.
Scope: The person Anub targets twice does not have to be a specific person - It can target Roj twice or Lorake twice, it just has to be a back to back selection.
Answer: 4% This is justified in two different methods.
Method A: Given that the first person it selects does not matter, it just needs to select one person. Thus the 4% probability of selection does not matter and does not factor in, since we don't give a shit who it selects. Thus it's first person, target A, is selected. After a stun, a new target is selected, and target A has a 4% chance of being selected, thus there is a 4% chance of a back to back targetting. Still not good enough?
Method B: So you don't buy into the fact that the first selection can be ignored completely. Ok, so you're retarded, but I can work with that. Given, that there is 25 people in the raid. For a single person in the raid, he has a 4% chance of getting it the first time, and 4% the second time to be targetted, thus a .16% percent of being targetted twice. So each person in a 25 man raid has a .16% chance of being double targetted, but since we're talking about a raid member in general and not a specific member being targetted twice, we need to take the sum of those probabilities. Thus 25 * .16% = 4%.
TL
R It's 4%, go fuck yourself while eating dicks.
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Crazy Diana - 10-18-2009
the real question is whats the % of getting targeted 3 times in a row
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Firecrest - 10-18-2009
No. The real question is what's the odds of it happening, people talking about the odds in ochat and then it happening again to the exact same person on the very next pull.
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-18-2009
Answer = .064%
Given that the first time someone it gets doubled, 4%.
Given that it has to be the same person 3rd and 4th time, .16%
Given that there is someone who likes to be mathy in officer chat, because they theorycraft with numbers and shit = 100%
Given that there is at least one retard in OChat who thinks otherwise or someone who wants to piss off said mathy person in OChat = 100%
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - geng - 10-18-2009
cr4zyd Wrote:the real question is whats the % of getting targeted 3 times in a row
according to this you have a 4% chance to get targetted a million times in a row.
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-18-2009
geng Wrote:cr4zyd Wrote:the real question is whats the % of getting targeted 3 times in a row
according to this you have a 4% chance to get targetted a million times in a row.
No, according to this, for a single person to get targetted X amount of times in a row, given the single person it targets does not matter, and 100% = 1, a person has a .04^(X-1) chance of being targeted X times.
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - CAN - 10-18-2009
wouldve been cooler to hear this yelled on vent
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - mascaron - 10-18-2009
Lorake Wrote:geng Wrote:cr4zyd Wrote:the real question is whats the % of getting targeted 3 times in a row
according to this you have a 4% chance to get targetted a million times in a row.
No, according to this, for a single person to get targetted X amount of times in a row, given the single person it targets does not matter, and 100% = 1, a person has a .04^(X-1) chance of being targeted X times.
so.. when X = 1 ... a single person has a 100% chance to be targeted 1 time? WOO
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Mikaelo - 10-18-2009
TL;DR
THE CHANCE OF GETTING TARGETED TWICE IS 'BOUT 50%
EITHER IT HAPPEN OR IT DONT
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Nouhstekehue - 10-18-2009
mascaron Wrote:Lorake Wrote:geng Wrote:according to this you have a 4% chance to get targetted a million times in a row.
No, according to this, for a single person to get targetted X amount of times in a row, given the single person it targets does not matter, and 100% = 1, a person has a .04^(X-1) chance of being targeted X times.
so.. when X = 1 ... a single person has a 100% chance to be targeted 1 time? WOO
He's actually rediculously close. It's 0.04^(X), for all X greater than 0 and for the single case. The odds of a person being followed once in a single P2 is 0.04^(1) * (1-0.04)^2 ~ 3.7%, followed twice in a row is 0.04^(2) * (1-0.04) ~ 1.5%, followed all three times is 0.04^(3) ~ lolz blizzard hates you. Assuming nobody fucks up and there's only two ice patches hit.
It gets even better if you look at two phase 2's, but I obviously hate math.