10-18-2009, 10:26 PM

Let's establish context first. The argument is simple, and warrants a clean, clear explanation.

The question: What is the probability of Anub targetting the same person twice in a row.

Some things to understand -

A single person has a 4% chance to be targetted.

There is no preferential treatment for back to back selection - IE if someone gets selected once, it's still a 4% chance to be selected again.

Scope: The person Anub targets twice does not have to be a specific person - It can target Roj twice or Lorake twice, it just has to be a back to back selection.

Answer: 4% This is justified in two different methods.

Method A: Given that the first person it selects does not matter, it just needs to select one person. Thus the 4% probability of selection does not matter and does not factor in, since we don't give a shit who it selects. Thus it's first person, target A, is selected. After a stun, a new target is selected, and target A has a 4% chance of being selected, thus there is a 4% chance of a back to back targetting. Still not good enough?

Method B: So you don't buy into the fact that the first selection can be ignored completely. Ok, so you're retarded, but I can work with that. Given, that there is 25 people in the raid. For a single person in the raid, he has a 4% chance of getting it the first time, and 4% the second time to be targetted, thus a .16% percent of being targetted twice. So each person in a 25 man raid has a .16% chance of being double targetted, but since we're talking about a raid member in general and not a specific member being targetted twice, we need to take the sum of those probabilities. Thus 25 * .16% = 4%.

TLR It's 4%, go fuck yourself while eating dicks.

The question: What is the probability of Anub targetting the same person twice in a row.

Some things to understand -

A single person has a 4% chance to be targetted.

There is no preferential treatment for back to back selection - IE if someone gets selected once, it's still a 4% chance to be selected again.

Scope: The person Anub targets twice does not have to be a specific person - It can target Roj twice or Lorake twice, it just has to be a back to back selection.

Answer: 4% This is justified in two different methods.

Method A: Given that the first person it selects does not matter, it just needs to select one person. Thus the 4% probability of selection does not matter and does not factor in, since we don't give a shit who it selects. Thus it's first person, target A, is selected. After a stun, a new target is selected, and target A has a 4% chance of being selected, thus there is a 4% chance of a back to back targetting. Still not good enough?

Method B: So you don't buy into the fact that the first selection can be ignored completely. Ok, so you're retarded, but I can work with that. Given, that there is 25 people in the raid. For a single person in the raid, he has a 4% chance of getting it the first time, and 4% the second time to be targetted, thus a .16% percent of being targetted twice. So each person in a 25 man raid has a .16% chance of being double targetted, but since we're talking about a raid member in general and not a specific member being targetted twice, we need to take the sum of those probabilities. Thus 25 * .16% = 4%.

TLR It's 4%, go fuck yourself while eating dicks.