It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Roj]

The amount of failure going into this thread is astounding. You are all making the assumption that each member of the raid has an equal chance to be targeted. The Anub'arak pursue is a fixate, which is why he can "randomly" switch due to priest fades and whatnot falling off or being used. Healers have a higher chance to be targeted due to the threat based portion of this.
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-o ... ell/67574/
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-c ... ell/67574/
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-6 ... ell/67574/

That may be the case but I think we're all assuming that all 25 people have the same random chance to be targetted.

[Lorake]

I think you're just bitter Roj because I'm right and you're wrong.

[geng]

The amount of failure going into this thread is astounding. You are all making the assumption that each member of the raid has an equal chance to be targeted. The Anub'arak pursue is a fixate, which is why he can "randomly" switch due to priest fades and whatnot falling off or being used. Healers have a higher chance to be targeted due to the threat based portion of this.
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-o ... ell/67574/
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-c ... ell/67574/
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-6 ... ell/67574/

its probably completely random for the first target, if it kills the target itll go on threat.

[Zoia]

lorake for president

[CAN]

BLIZZARD DOESNT USE MATH

FUCKHEADS

[jackslammer]

Fuck it, let's go bowling.

[Zoia]

:mrgreen:

[Roj]

Now for the fun part:

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases

F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

So targetted 2 times with 2 chases, F(2,2)

F(2,2) = .04 + .96F(1,2)
F(1,2) = 0 thus F(2,2) = .04


2 times with 3 chases
F(3,2) = .04 + .96F(2,2) = .0784

and it goes from there. If you think I'm wrong break it with a case, otherwise your arguements are invalid and retarded.

This forumula does not make sense. You can't post garbage like this and say I need to explain why you're wrong. Why do you have two variables?

[Thorran]

Fuck it, let's go bowling.

[Lorake]

Now for the fun part:

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases

F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

So targetted 2 times with 2 chases, F(2,2)

F(2,2) = .04 + .96F(1,2)
F(1,2) = 0 thus F(2,2) = .04


2 times with 3 chases
F(3,2) = .04 + .96F(2,2) = .0784

and it goes from there. If you think I'm wrong break it with a case, otherwise your arguements are invalid and retarded.

This forumula does not make sense. You can't post garbage like this and say I need to explain why you're wrong. Why do you have two variables?

Because I'm a real mathematician, and am not limited to one variable. I also grew up in South Korea, which means I'm part asian by nature, which makes me infinite times better at math than you.