It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

Let's establish context first. The argument is simple, and warrants a clean, clear explanation.

The question: What is the probability of Anub targetting the same person twice in a row.

Some things to understand -
A single person has a 4% chance to be targetted.
There is no preferential treatment for back to back selection - IE if someone gets selected once, it's still a 4% chance to be selected again.

Scope: The person Anub targets twice does not have to be a specific person - It can target Roj twice or Lorake twice, it just has to be a back to back selection.

Answer: 4% This is justified in two different methods.

Method A: Given that the first person it selects does not matter, it just needs to select one person. Thus the 4% probability of selection does not matter and does not factor in, since we don't give a shit who it selects. Thus it's first person, target A, is selected. After a stun, a new target is selected, and target A has a 4% chance of being selected, thus there is a 4% chance of a back to back targetting. Still not good enough?

Method B: So you don't buy into the fact that the first selection can be ignored completely. Ok, so you're retarded, but I can work with that. Given, that there is 25 people in the raid. For a single person in the raid, he has a 4% chance of getting it the first time, and 4% the second time to be targetted, thus a .16% percent of being targetted twice. So each person in a 25 man raid has a .16% chance of being double targetted, but since we're talking about a raid member in general and not a specific member being targetted twice, we need to take the sum of those probabilities. Thus 25 * .16% = 4%.

TLR It's 4%, go fuck yourself while eating dicks.

Wrong Wrong Wrong

I don't think you understand the difference between these two statements:

1. The probability of a person being targetted 2 times in a row.
2. After being targetted once, the probability of that person being targetted again.

Either you're really stupid or you're terrible at math. The probability of any raid member being targetted "X" times in a row is (1/25)^(X).

I.E.
1x = 4%
2x = .16%
3x = .0064%
4x = .000256%

Ok so maybe my point isn't clear. Maybe I should restate the point as the probability of a RANDOM person being targetted twice. In which case it's just the same as a person being targetted again, which was the crux of the debate, since the debate was what's the probability that someone in raid (IE RANDOM PERSON) would get double targetted. And it's 4%. If you still insist that I'm wrong, you are retarded.

If we were talking, say, the probability of LORAKE being targetted twice in a row, then it's .16%, since we've set the conditional statement of who the first target must be. In my complete explanation of method B I completely explain how the sum of individual probabilities equals 4%. Statistics 101 brah.

Somehow I just doubt you read the OP in completeness, and just said I was wrong in your old man ignorance. I am right. You are wrong. Stop doing bad math in your head.