It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

targeted once = 4%
targetted twice in a row = 4%

does not make any fucking sense

Targeted once = don't give a fuck, we don't care who it targets.
Targetted twice = 4% for it to be the original target.

You're holding on to the fact that the very first person has 4% chance to be targetted, when we're not asking for a specific person to be targetted first. Until you realize the first target's probability DOES NOT MATTER in determining a double target event occuring, then this will go nowhere.