10-19-2009, 05:45 PM
How have I missed out on this thread.
Anyways, Lorake is correct in saying that the chance of A person being followed twice in a row is 4%.
The reason that this is so, is because, as he said, who he targets first does not matter. There is a 100% chance for SOMEONE to get targeted the first time. The odds of that same person getting targeted again is 4%.
I'll explain it in a non-mathematical way. Imagine you have a bag of 25 marbles, all with a different name on them. Anub'Arak picks out a marble from that bag, there is a 100% chance of this happening. He then throws that marble back into the bag and picks out another one. The chance that it will be that same marble is 1/25 or 4%. As lorkae said, if we had been asking about a specific marble, let's say, Lorake. The odds of him picking Lorake the first time are 4% and then again the second time is .16%. But that's not what we're asking. The question is whether or not he will follow ANYONE twice. Because that is what causes the problem.
Gemg, what yo said before was wrong. He didn't say there was a 4% chance for someone to get followed the first and second time. There is in fact a 100% chance that someone will get followed once, and what that means is that there is a 100% chance that Anub will follow a member of the raid. Someone, refers to one member of the 25 man raid, so if it still doesn't make sense, think of it as there is a 100% chance for 1 of the 25 people to get followed by Anub.
Anyways, Lorake is correct in saying that the chance of A person being followed twice in a row is 4%.
The reason that this is so, is because, as he said, who he targets first does not matter. There is a 100% chance for SOMEONE to get targeted the first time. The odds of that same person getting targeted again is 4%.
I'll explain it in a non-mathematical way. Imagine you have a bag of 25 marbles, all with a different name on them. Anub'Arak picks out a marble from that bag, there is a 100% chance of this happening. He then throws that marble back into the bag and picks out another one. The chance that it will be that same marble is 1/25 or 4%. As lorkae said, if we had been asking about a specific marble, let's say, Lorake. The odds of him picking Lorake the first time are 4% and then again the second time is .16%. But that's not what we're asking. The question is whether or not he will follow ANYONE twice. Because that is what causes the problem.
Gemg, what yo said before was wrong. He didn't say there was a 4% chance for someone to get followed the first and second time. There is in fact a 100% chance that someone will get followed once, and what that means is that there is a 100% chance that Anub will follow a member of the raid. Someone, refers to one member of the 25 man raid, so if it still doesn't make sense, think of it as there is a 100% chance for 1 of the 25 people to get followed by Anub.