10-19-2009, 09:52 PM
fancy math algorithms isn't going to convince anyone here since the problem is not the math it is the relative perspective Lorake and Roj are taking.
Roj is arguing this from the point of view of where we see most math problems in like textbooks and what your middle school calc teacher gave you for hw.
Before anub targets someone, what is the chance of him targeting 2 people in a row? The answer to this would be 0.04 x 0.04 which is 0.0016 or 0.16%. The chance of anub targetting the same person twice in a row is 0.16% if you are considering the odds before he targets someone.
Lorake on the other hand, is taking a more practical approach. He is looking at the problem from when anub has already targetted someone.
Since anub is going always target people, Lorake is saying we don't give a shit what the probability is for the first target (which happens to be 0.04 or 4%). He has a 100% chance of targetting someone, and we only care about that next 0.04 probability of his 2nd targetting round. 100% chance of anub targetting someone (1.00) x Anub's second round of targetting (0.04) is 0.04 or 4%. So the chance of anub targetting someone twice in a practical sense is 4%.
Anub's first targetting probability of does not matter since he is going to select somebody. It is 100% even tho it's 4% for a specific person. The final practical answer is 4% because only his second round of targetting matters.
If that makes sense
Roj is arguing this from the point of view of where we see most math problems in like textbooks and what your middle school calc teacher gave you for hw.
Before anub targets someone, what is the chance of him targeting 2 people in a row? The answer to this would be 0.04 x 0.04 which is 0.0016 or 0.16%. The chance of anub targetting the same person twice in a row is 0.16% if you are considering the odds before he targets someone.
Lorake on the other hand, is taking a more practical approach. He is looking at the problem from when anub has already targetted someone.
Since anub is going always target people, Lorake is saying we don't give a shit what the probability is for the first target (which happens to be 0.04 or 4%). He has a 100% chance of targetting someone, and we only care about that next 0.04 probability of his 2nd targetting round. 100% chance of anub targetting someone (1.00) x Anub's second round of targetting (0.04) is 0.04 or 4%. So the chance of anub targetting someone twice in a practical sense is 4%.
Anub's first targetting probability of does not matter since he is going to select somebody. It is 100% even tho it's 4% for a specific person. The final practical answer is 4% because only his second round of targetting matters.
If that makes sense