It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

Ok let's take a look at your formula:

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases

F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

We'll try 5 for both.

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 5 times in a row with 5 amount of chases

F(5,5) = .04^(5-1) + .96F(5-1,5) which equals

F(5,5) = .04^(4) + .96F(4,5) which equals

F(5,5) = .00000256 + .96F(4,5)

Now go ahead and finish the equation for me Lorake.

F(4,5) = 0 since X < Y.

Thus F(5,5) = .00000256 = .04^4 = I'm right, bitch.