It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

Typo in the copy paste job I did. Let's re-adjust to what I meant. That's my bad on the typo, and fixed for the catch. Equation still holds, so let's continue with your case.

Let's take your probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 4 times in a row with 5 chases.


Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)
F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96F(4,4) = .04^4 + .96*(.04^4 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y thus F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96 * .04^4 = .0000050176



T T T T T = .04^5
T T T T F = .04^4 * .96
F T T T T = .04^4 * .96
Are the only cases where 4 back to backs happen for an individual.
Individual = .04^5 + 2 * .04^4 * .96
25 People = 25 * (.04^5 + 2 * .04^4 * .96) = .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .0000050176

I APOLOGIZE FOR THE TYPO IN THE COPYPASTING JOB I DID. EQUATION STILL HOLDS YOU TWAT.

.04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 does not = .0000050176

.04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .00012544

You're just making up numbers and I'm tired of correcting you. I'm going to bed. I'll look at the garbage you're posting in the morning.

Fuck me another typo. Good catch.

OP
F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96F(4,4) = .04^4 + .96*(.04^4 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y thus F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96 * .04^4 = .0000050176

FIXED
F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96F(4,4) = .04^3 + .96*(.04^3 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96 * .04^3 = .00012544

Was going .04^4 instead of .04^3 like I should since it's .04^(Y-1) and not .04(Y). Getting too excited at the final conclusion I'm stumbling in the process. Yea it's .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .00012544. I'm using MS calculator and not a TI calculator to do this stuff, so I'm pretty sure I hit equals too many times to do the powering up of .04. Calculators aside they're still equal, with the typo caught.

F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96 * .04^3 = 1.96 * .04 ^ 3 = .04 * .04^3 + 1.92 * .04 ^ 3 = .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96

My formula's still right, I just need to fuck up less on plugging in values when I calculate it. I'M JUST TOO EXCITED, MATH MAKES ME EXCITED.

I'M RIGHT. YOU'RE WRONG. I JUST NEED TO STOP DOING TYPOS WHEN PLUGGING AND CHUGGING. OTHERWISE I'M SET.