It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Roj]

Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work.

Ok here we go with another day of Lorake's copy/paste trash math. Let's look at your latest "equation"

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

I'll use 3 and 5.

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 3 times in a row with 5 amount of chases (this doesn't even make sense but the equation you copy/pasted had two variables so you went with it)

F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)
F(5,3) = .04^(3-1) + .96F(5-1,3)
F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96F(4,3)
F(5,3) = .0016 + .96F(4,3)

ROFL this is such a joke. Go ahead and finish the equation Lorake.