It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work.

Ok here we go with another day of Lorake's copy/paste trash math. Let's look at your latest "equation"

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

I'll use 3 and 5.

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 3 times in a row with 5 amount of chases (this doesn't even make sense but the equation you copy/pasted had two variables so you went with it)

F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)
F(5,3) = .04^(3-1) + .96F(5-1,3)
F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96F(4,3)
F(5,3) = .0016 + .96F(4,3)

ROFL this is such a joke. Go ahead and finish the equation Lorake.

F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96F(4,3) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2)+ .96F(3,3)) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + F(2,3)))
= .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2))) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96+ .04^2 * .96^2

Individual's chance
TTTTT = .04^5
TTTTF = .96^1 * .04^4
TTTFT = .96^1 * .04^4
TTTFF = .96^2 * .04^3
TTFTT = no 3btb
TTFTF = no 3btb
TTFFT = no 3btb
TTFFF = no 3btb
TFTTT = .96^1 * .04^4
TFTTF = no 3btb
TFTFT = no 3btb
TFTFF = no 3btb
TFFTT = no 3btb
TFFTF = no 3btb
TFFFT = no 3btb
TFFFF = no 3btb
FTTTT = .96^1 * .04^4
FTTTF = .96^2 * .04^3
FTTFT = no 3btb
FTTFF = no 3btb
FTFTT = no 3btb
FTFTF = no 3btb
FTFFT = no 3btb
FTFFF = no 3btb
FFTTT = .96^2 * .04^3
FFTTF = no 3btb
FFTFT = no 3btb
FFTFF = no 3btb
FFFTT = no 3btb
FFFTF = no 3btb
FFFFT = no 3btb
FFFFF = no 3btb
Sum = .04^5 + 4 * .04^4 * . 96 + 3 * .04^3 * .96 ^ 2
^ Individual case. But we have 25, so multiple
Sum(25) = .04^4 + 4 * .04^3 * . 96 + 3 * .04^2 * .96 ^ 2 =0.004672
F(5,3) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96 + .04^2 * .96^2 = 0.00461056
A different of .04^3 * .96




Check my numbers and verify I did the sum of the individual and F(X,Y) right. If this is true Roj is right about my formula, and my formula and I have to eat crow on this one, but it still stands Anub has a .04^(X-1) chance of X selecting people in X tries, as my formula has held and matched. My formula holds true for X chases in a row with X chances, and X-1 chases in a row with X chances, which were the two original cases I checked myself before putting this monstrosity up.

And there you go Roj. If you had only given a simple case and not just said NO NO LOL YOU'RE RETARDED and make yourself look like shit, then you could have walked away from this one clean and not looking like a retard bantering nonsense for 8 pages. The first few cases you gave me were shot down, only because you didn't even bother thinking it out. I'm sure if you actually had tried to make sense you could have came up with the case to break it easily, but thanks to your random number generation YOU LUCKED OUT.

Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work.

I LOLed to this one. Roj, if there's ever someone who can be arrogant, it's you. Never willing to admit it's your fault in the process, which is why even though the above equation fails, I'm now going to fix the issue you caused and validate it for 2 BTBs, 5 chases as well as 3 BTBs, 5 chases, just so I am the one who gets to tell you to go fuck yourself in the end.