It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Lorake]

And btw Roj, I'm still waiting for you to say you were wrong for the original post, which is that the probability of an anub double chase of a random person given two chases in a raid of 25 people is 4%.

So let's expand on this because I think even though you now realize your "equation" is incorrect all you really care about is demonstrating that the chance to be chased twice in a row is 4% not .16%. You have failed to prove this mathematically so let's look at it practically from all of the attempts we have done. We've done 150+ attempts. Anub does approximately 7 chases per full attempt, but we sometimes wipe early so let's say 4 chases per attempt which gives us 600 total chases. .16% of 600 is .96. 4% of 600 is 24. In all of our attempts I've only seen two double chases. Maybe I missed one, but regardless it is not even CLOSE to 24 double chases.

And when you flip a coin 100 times, because it's a 1/2 chance for it to be heads (roughly), it's suppose to be 50 heads and 50 tails. So obviously what you said above is true.

NOTE: PROBABILITY AND ACTUAL PERFORMANCE DON'T HAVE TO MATCH. PROBABILITY IS THE CHANCE THAT SOMETHING IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN, BUT DOESN'T HAPPEN. COMPARING IT TO "REAL" PERFORMANCE IS HILARIOUS AND IS A HUGE FAILURE ON YOUR PART.

Now for the equation. Get ready to shit on yourself in the end.