It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post.

[Zoia]

Roj trolls as good as he tanks adds on anub

[Lorake]

Typo in the copy paste job I did. Let's re-adjust to what I meant. That's my bad on the typo, and fixed for the catch. Equation still holds, so let's continue with your case.

Let's take your probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 4 times in a row with 5 chases.


Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)
F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96F(4,4) = .04^4 + .96*(.04^4 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y thus F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96 * .04^4 = .0000050176



T T T T T = .04^5
T T T T F = .04^4 * .96
F T T T T = .04^4 * .96
Are the only cases where 4 back to backs happen for an individual.
Individual = .04^5 + 2 * .04^4 * .96
25 People = 25 * (.04^5 + 2 * .04^4 * .96) = .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .0000050176

I APOLOGIZE FOR THE TYPO IN THE COPYPASTING JOB I DID. EQUATION STILL HOLDS YOU TWAT.

.04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 does not = .0000050176

.04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .00012544

You're just making up numbers and I'm tired of correcting you. I'm going to bed. I'll look at the garbage you're posting in the morning.

Fuck me another typo. Good catch.

OP
F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96F(4,4) = .04^4 + .96*(.04^4 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y thus F(5,4) = .04^4 + .96 * .04^4 = .0000050176

FIXED
F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96F(4,4) = .04^3 + .96*(.04^3 + .96F(3,4))
F(3,4) = 0 since X<Y F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96 * .04^3 = .00012544

Was going .04^4 instead of .04^3 like I should since it's .04^(Y-1) and not .04(Y). Getting too excited at the final conclusion I'm stumbling in the process. Yea it's .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96 = .00012544. I'm using MS calculator and not a TI calculator to do this stuff, so I'm pretty sure I hit equals too many times to do the powering up of .04. Calculators aside they're still equal, with the typo caught.

F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96 * .04^3 = 1.96 * .04 ^ 3 = .04 * .04^3 + 1.92 * .04 ^ 3 = .04^4 + 2 * .04^3 * .96

My formula's still right, I just need to fuck up less on plugging in values when I calculate it. I'M JUST TOO EXCITED, MATH MAKES ME EXCITED.

I'M RIGHT. YOU'RE WRONG. I JUST NEED TO STOP DOING TYPOS WHEN PLUGGING AND CHUGGING. OTHERWISE I'M SET.

[Lorake]

Going to bed, sleeping wonderful dreams and the thought of Roj shitting himself when, with all his catches just being typos, yet my orginal equation still holds, that he has to yield to me and say FUCK MY LIFE LORAKE IS RIGHT WHY DO I STILL LIVE.

[sophronius]

are u nerds still raging about this non-sense

[Keiku]

posting in an epic failure

also hoping mini sees my post and finally offs himself

[Ethax]

Why is Demonology such a shitty spec.

[Roj]

Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work.

Ok here we go with another day of Lorake's copy/paste trash math. Let's look at your latest "equation"

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted Y times in a row with X amount of chases
F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X
F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 *Edit: broke my own equation LOL
F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)

I'll use 3 and 5.

Probability of a random person in raid getting targetted 3 times in a row with 5 amount of chases (this doesn't even make sense but the equation you copy/pasted had two variables so you went with it)

F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96F(X-1,Y)
F(5,3) = .04^(3-1) + .96F(5-1,3)
F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96F(4,3)
F(5,3) = .0016 + .96F(4,3)

ROFL this is such a joke. Go ahead and finish the equation Lorake.

[Archlight]

[Meekslol]

PRIDE HERALDS THE END OF YOUR WORLD! COME MORTALS! FACE THE WRATH OF THE SOUL FLAYER!

[Hitshade]

HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT DICK SANDWICH.

OMG MOAR WEBSITE QUOTEZ PLZ.