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It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Printable Version +- (https://wuthapn.com/forums) +-- Forum: WHAR LEWTS PLZ HALp (https://wuthapn.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=3) +--- Forum: GINERAL FORUM (https://wuthapn.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=4) +--- Thread: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. (/showthread.php?tid=1373) |
Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Hitshade - 10-20-2009 Lorake Wrote: lol omg, this one is gold. Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Crazy Diana - 10-20-2009 i googled math fight and got a clip from a shitty show Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Hitshade - 10-20-2009 Meanwhile in Korea Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-20-2009 Roj Wrote:Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work. F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96F(4,3) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2)+ .96F(3,3)) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + F(2,3))) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2))) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96+ .04^2 * .96^2 Individual's chance TTTTT = .04^5 TTTTF = .96^1 * .04^4 TTTFT = .96^1 * .04^4 TTTFF = .96^2 * .04^3 TTFTT = no 3btb TTFTF = no 3btb TTFFT = no 3btb TTFFF = no 3btb TFTTT = .96^1 * .04^4 TFTTF = no 3btb TFTFT = no 3btb TFTFF = no 3btb TFFTT = no 3btb TFFTF = no 3btb TFFFT = no 3btb TFFFF = no 3btb FTTTT = .96^1 * .04^4 FTTTF = .96^2 * .04^3 FTTFT = no 3btb FTTFF = no 3btb FTFTT = no 3btb FTFTF = no 3btb FTFFT = no 3btb FTFFF = no 3btb FFTTT = .96^2 * .04^3 FFTTF = no 3btb FFTFT = no 3btb FFTFF = no 3btb FFFTT = no 3btb FFFTF = no 3btb FFFFT = no 3btb FFFFF = no 3btb Sum = .04^5 + 4 * .04^4 * . 96 + 3 * .04^3 * .96 ^ 2 ^ Individual case. But we have 25, so multiple Sum(25) = .04^4 + 4 * .04^3 * . 96 + 3 * .04^2 * .96 ^ 2 =0.004672 F(5,3) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96 + .04^2 * .96^2 = 0.00461056 A different of .04^3 * .96 Check my numbers and verify I did the sum of the individual and F(X,Y) right. If this is true Roj is right about my formula, and my formula and I have to eat crow on this one, but it still stands Anub has a .04^(X-1) chance of X selecting people in X tries, as my formula has held and matched. My formula holds true for X chases in a row with X chances, and X-1 chases in a row with X chances, which were the two original cases I checked myself before putting this monstrosity up. And there you go Roj. If you had only given a simple case and not just said NO NO LOL YOU'RE RETARDED and make yourself look like shit, then you could have walked away from this one clean and not looking like a retard bantering nonsense for 8 pages. The first few cases you gave me were shot down, only because you didn't even bother thinking it out. I'm sure if you actually had tried to make sense you could have came up with the case to break it easily, but thanks to your random number generation YOU LUCKED OUT. Roj Wrote:Edit: I understand what Lorake is attempting to explain. The chance for a raid member to be targetted the first time by Anub is 4%. The chance for him to be targetted again is also 4%. If a raid member was targetted 99 times in a row, the chance for him to be targetted the 100th time would also be 4%. All of this is pretty obvious. The problem with Lorake is he is by far the most arrogant person I have ever known, so he is trying to back up his explanation by posting bullshit equations which do not work. I LOLed to this one. Roj, if there's ever someone who can be arrogant, it's you. Never willing to admit it's your fault in the process, which is why even though the above equation fails, I'm now going to fix the issue you caused and validate it for 2 BTBs, 5 chases as well as 3 BTBs, 5 chases, just so I am the one who gets to tell you to go fuck yourself in the end. Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-20-2009 So go fuck yourself Roj, have fun with this one. So problem fixed for now new equation holds under (5,3) as well as the previous cases of (5,4) and (5,5), but hold your breath until I can really test out the case of F(5,2) Find the probability of Y back to back chases given Anub does X chases F(X,Y) = 0 when Y>X F(X,Y) = 1 when Y = 1 F(X,Y) = .04^(Y-1) + .96(F(X-1,Y) +F(X-1, Y+1)) F(5,3) = .04^(2) + .96(F(4,3)+F(4,4)) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2)+ .96F(3,3) + .04^3) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + F(2,3) + .04^3)) = .04^(2) + .96(.04^(2) + .96(.04^(2)) + .04^3 ) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96+ .04^2 * .96^2 + .04^3 * .96 Individual's chance (use previous post) Sum = .04^5 + 4 * .04^4 * . 96 + 3 * .04^3 * .96 ^ 2 ^ Individual case. But we have 25, so multiple Sum(25) = .04^4 + 4 * .04^3 * . 96 + 3 * .04^2 * .96 ^ 2 =0.004672 F(5,3) = .04^2 + .04^2 * .96 + .04^2 * .96^2 + .04^3 * .96 = 0.004672 Eliminating the difference. The forumula still holds for F(5,4) since F(5,4) = .04^3 + .96(F(4,4) + F(4,5)) = .04^3 + .96F(4,4) = Old algorithm. I have a problem now. Because the cases of a triple chase of this case are independent, it’s possible to have a double chase occur twice in 5 chases (ROJ, ROJ, LORAKE, LORAKE, ABEC) thus it’s not logical to multiple by 25, since each individual’s chance of a overlap with each other in certain cases. I’ll see if I can get my hands on a C++ program or something to have it calculate the probability of a double chase through raw power. This problem hasn’t been apparent in previous ones since it’s unpossible for two people to have the triple chase occur in 5 chases (UNPOSSIBLE). Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Crazy Diana - 10-20-2009 did you grow a white beard and ponder this over a chalkboard too you fucking nerd Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-20-2009 cr4zyd Wrote:did you grow a white beard and ponder this over a chalkboard too you fucking nerd Yes. Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Crazy Diana - 10-20-2009 einstein meets gandalf came to mind Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Lorake - 10-20-2009 I cast magic missle at the darkness. Re: It's 4%, AKA the Go Fuck Yourself Post. - Masex - 10-20-2009 Is there anything worth reading in this thread? |